MARKET OVERVIEW

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

WATCHMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

WATCH: Resolution wording or source quality is still weak enough to create interpretation risk.

GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

4.0%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

MODERATE

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

MODERATE

Best buy route is POLYMARKET. Best sell route is POLYMARKET. Visible depth is $970. Tightest spread is 0.1¢.

BEST BUY

POLYMARKET · 0.1¢

BEST SELL

POLYMARKET · 0.1¢

VISIBLE DEPTH

$970

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 4cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE4c

LIQUIDITYNORMAL

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF10:19 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 4C

28%

4C - 9C

30%

9C - 15C

12%

ABOVE 15C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Cross-strait military, diplomatic, and policy escalation

FOCUS

Cross-strait military, diplomatic, and policy escalation

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official defense ministry or foreign ministry statements

Military exercise, blockade, or mobilization signals

Sanctions, treaty, or alliance-response announcements

SOURCES

Taiwan MND News U.S. State Department NATO News

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOFZDZ1 Q5B5M...

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

4.0%

SPREAD

0.1¢

VOL 24H

$16K

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 3M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOFZDZ1 R2T78...

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.

RULES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

GEOPOLITICS CONTEXT

Cross-strait military, diplomatic, and policy escalation

Taiwan Strait escalation context for this market.

WATCH

Official defense ministry or foreign ministry statements

Military exercise, blockade, or mobilization signals

Sanctions, treaty, or alliance-response announcements

SOURCES

Taiwan MND News

U.S. State Department

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

5mo 8d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$16K

TOTAL DEPTH

$970

MARKET AGE

3 MONTHS

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-07-25 10:19 UTC

DERIVED

LIVE · 2026-07-25 10:19 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-07-25 10:18 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-07-25 10:19 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 10:19 UTC

IMPLIED YES

4.0%

SPREAD 0.1¢

VOL 24H $16K

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

0.1¢

DEPTH

$970

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·0.1%·F100

1K·0.3%·F49

10K·0.4%·F5

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

FILL 49%

POLY BOOK

$970 · BALANCED

SPREAD

0.1¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

49%

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

0.26%

SELL SLIPPAGE

0.25%

SPREAD·0.1¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·49%

BUY SLIPPAGE·0.26%

SELL SLIPPAGE·0.25%

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWN█P02G0 ▓2KR9LH█B

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2G // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2H // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2K // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2L // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2M // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR