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EVENT SHELL
geopolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$15.9K
OPEN INT
$566.5K
FRESHNESS
RECENT
184S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
REGIMEthin book (1/1)
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

·
WATCHMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

WATCH: Resolution wording or source quality is still weak enough to create interpretation risk.

GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3m AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
4.0%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
MODERATE
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
MODERATE
Best buy route is POLYMARKET. Best sell route is POLYMARKET. Visible depth is $991. Tightest spread is 0.1¢.
BEST BUY
POLYMARKET · 0.1¢
BEST SELL
POLYMARKET · 0.1¢
VISIBLE DEPTH
$991
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 4cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE4c
LIQUIDITYNORMAL
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF10:41 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 1C
18%
1C - 4C
28%
4C - 9C
30%
9C - 15C
12%
ABOVE 15C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Cross-strait military, diplomatic, and policy escalation
FOCUS
Cross-strait military, diplomatic, and policy escalation
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official defense ministry or foreign ministry statements
Military exercise, blockade, or mobilization signals
Sanctions, treaty, or alliance-response announcements
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 3M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment