MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?

OPEN KALSHI··

WATCHMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: If Greens wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Resolution wording or source quality is still weak enough to create interpretation risk.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

3.5%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Tightest spread is 1.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 4cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE4c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF04:15 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 4C

28%

4C - 15C

30%

15C - 26C

12%

ABOVE 26C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Official election administration and filing path

FOCUS

Official election administration and filing path

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings Election Assistance Commission Can I Vote

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEKLSH

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOFZDZ1 Q5B5M...

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

3.5%

SPREAD

1.0¢

VOL 24H

$5K

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 3M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOFZDZ1 R2T78...

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.

RULES

If Greens wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Official election administration and filing path

Election and ballot context for this market.

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings

Election Assistance Commission

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

44mo 15d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$5K

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

TODAY

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-07-29 04:15 UTC

DERIVED

LIVE · 2026-07-29 04:15 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-07-29 04:14 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-07-29 04:15 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

KLSH · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 04:15 UTC

IMPLIED YES

3.5%

SPREAD 1.0¢

VOL 24H $5K

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

1.0¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

KLSH BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

1.0¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·1.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

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OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2G // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2H // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2K // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2L // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2M // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR