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EVENT SHELL
politics

Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?

If BSW wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
7
VENUES
7
VOL 24H
$874
OPEN INT
$20.8K
FRESHNESS
RECENT
130S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?2%Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?16%Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?28%Will The Left win the next election to the German Bundestag?2%Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?49%Will Greens win the next election to the German Bundestag?4%Will FDP win the next election to the German Bundestag?2%
REGIMEnormal (7/7)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?

·
CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If BSW wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2m AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
1.5%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 1.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 2cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE2c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF03:20 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 1C
18%
1C - 2C
28%
2C - 13C
30%
13C - 24C
12%
ABOVE 24C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will BSW win the next election to the German Bundestag?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
7 tracks
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 2M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment