MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 1.75%?
CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS
Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.75%, then...
WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.
OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2m AGO
RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE
Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.
CORE VERDICTS
YES
81.0%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.
RANGEThreshold Range
THRESHOLD DISTRIBUTION
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 1.75%?81%
LOWHIGH
LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 24.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 81cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE81c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF02:19 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 59C
8%
59C - 70C
18%
70C - 81C
28%
81C - 92C
30%
92C - 99C
12%
ABOVE 99C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
VENUEKLSH
MOVE—
RANGE—
FRESHUNKNOWN
PRICEUNKNOWN
HISTORY BUILDING
Candle history has not accumulated yet.
Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.
YES
81.0%
SPREAD
24.0¢
VOL 24H
$8
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 2M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS