←Back to markets←Open markets←Open selected market
EVENT SHELL
other

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
21
VENUES
21
VOL 24H
$119
OPEN INT
$107
FRESHNESS
LIVE
40S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
5.00%?25%4.50%?28%3.75%?40%4.00%?34%3.50%?45%2.50%?62%2.00%?76%3.25%?51%3.00%?52%2.75%?51%1.75%?81%1.50%?68%1.25%?74%1.00%?74%4.75%?25%4.25%?32%6.00%?11%5.75%?18%5.25%?26%2.25%?65%5.50%?17%
REGIMEthin book (3/21)normal (18/21)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 5.00%?

·
CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.00%, then...

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 40s AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
25.0%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 2.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 25cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE25c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHLIVE
AS OF02:19 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 3C
8%
3C - 14C
18%
14C - 25C
28%
25C - 36C
30%
36C - 48C
12%
ABOVE 48C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
5.00%?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
21 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
LIVE FEED
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment