MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Tereza Cristina finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 polymarket contracts — showing best representative

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 5h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

0.1%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

NEG-RISKNeg-Risk Structure

1 outcomes linked·conversion-aware routing·Neg-risk conversion semantics require awareness of linked outcome structure

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · NEG RISK · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 1cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE1c

LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF08:15 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 1C

28%

1C - 7C

30%

7C - 12C

12%

ABOVE 12C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Official election administration and filing path

FOCUS

Official election administration and filing path

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings Election Assistance Commission Can I Vote

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LINKED CONTRACT LINES (2) · POLYMARKET

Click a contract row to focus it here. Use POLY to open the native venue.

POLY

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

0.1%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

—

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 5H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Official election administration and filing path

Election and ballot context for this market.

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings

Election Assistance Commission

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

4mo 5d

TOTAL VOL 24H

—

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

TODAY

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-05-31 08:15 UTC

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

RECENT · 2026-05-31 07:15 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-31 08:15 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 08:15 UTC

IMPLIED YES

0.1%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $0

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS