MARKET OVERVIEW

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: If Elon Musk supports at least 5 non-incumbents who win Congressional seats in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 1091h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

18.5%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Tightest spread is 7.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 19cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE19c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF09:16 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 7C

18%

7C - 19C

28%

19C - 30C

30%

30C - 41C

12%

ABOVE 41C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

FOCUS

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov House Clerk Votes Senate Roll Call Votes

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEKLSH

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOFZDZ1 Q5B5M...

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

18.5%

SPREAD

7.0¢

VOL 24H

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 1091H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOFZDZ1 R2T78...

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

If Elon Musk supports at least 5 non-incumbents who win Congressional seats in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

Legislative-process context for this market.

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov

House Clerk Votes

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

6mo 20d

TOTAL VOL 24H

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-05-31 09:16 UTC

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

STALE · 2026-05-31 08:23 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-31 09:16 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

KLSH · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 09:16 UTC

IMPLIED YES

18.5%

SPREAD 7.0¢

VOL 24H $2

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

7.0¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

KLSH BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

7.0¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·7.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

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OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2H // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2K // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2L // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2M // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR