MARKET OVERVIEW

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 14m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

1.7%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

AUG-NRAugmented Neg-Risk

1 / 2 named·other present·Other outcome may absorb residual probability — factor into sizing

FAMILY DEGRADATION / MEDIUM

other outcome spans unknown state space

Other outcome may absorb residual probability — factor into sizing

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · AUGMENTED NEG RISK · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 2cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE2c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF10:27 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 2C

28%

2C - 13C

30%

13C - 24C

12%

ABOVE 24C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

FOCUS

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov House Clerk Votes Senate Roll Call Votes

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · 1 venue 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · 1 venue 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · 1 venue

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

LUCIDEX DERIVEDLive-quote bars built from venue updates

VENUEPOLY

MOVE+0.0%

RANGE1.7%–1.8%

FRESH41m

PRICEMID

LOADING CHART RUNTIME

Initializing interactive chart surface.

Lucidex is booting the chart engine after the main terminal shell so quote, spread, and depth can hydrate first.

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 14M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

ORDER BOOK DEPTH · POLYMARKETSTALE

LIVE ORDER BOOK

UPDATED 09:49:30 UTC

BIDS

1.6%$301

1.5%$1

1.3%$13

1.2%$24

1.1%$21

1.0%$150

0.9%$98

0.8%$220

0.7%$141

0.6%$56

0.5%$55

0.4%$198

ASKS

1.7%$59

1.8%$212

1.9%$150

2.0%$250

2.1%$79

2.2%$88

2.4%$23

2.5%$115

2.6%$195

2.7%$24

2.8%$28

3.5%$35

BID $4KASK $13.6M

EXECUTION TICKET

Preparing routing, guardrails, and account context...

UPDATED 09:49:30 UTC

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EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

Legislative-process context for this market.

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov

House Clerk Votes

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

3mo 10d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$175

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

3 MONTHS

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-07-25 10:27 UTC

DERIVED

STALE · 2026-07-25 06:36 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-07-25 10:27 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-07-25 10:27 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 10:27 UTC

IMPLIED YES

1.7%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $175

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

14m

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

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OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

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VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR