MARKET OVERVIEW

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

CAUTIONMIXED DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: If New Democratic Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2s AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

36.5%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Tightest spread is 1.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 37cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE37c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF05:07 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 14C

14C - 25C

18%

25C - 37C

28%

37C - 48C

30%

48C - 59C

12%

ABOVE 59C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Official election administration and filing path

FOCUS

Official election administration and filing path

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings Election Assistance Commission Can I Vote

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons? · 1 venue Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons? · 1 venue

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEKLSH

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOFZDZ1 Q5B5M...

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

36.5%

SPREAD

1.0¢

VOL 24H

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 7M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

ORDER BOOK DEPTH · KALSHISTALE

LIVE ORDER BOOK

UPDATED 02:42:45 UTC

BIDS

36.0%$1K

35.0%$12

34.0%$177

29.0%$29

22.0%$88

8.0%$4

7.0%$191

4.0%$8

1.0%$26

——

ASKS

37.0%$851

38.0%$4

40.0%$2

42.0%$210

43.0%$9

48.0%$48

58.0%$232

83.0%$203

84.0%$3K

98.0%$14

99.0%$2K

BID $2KASK $6K

EXECUTION TICKET

Preparing routing, guardrails, and account context...

UPDATED 02:42:45 UTC

EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

If New Democratic Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Official election administration and filing path

Election and ballot context for this market.

WATCH

Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update

Jurisdiction-level result publication timing

Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification

SOURCES

FEC Filings

Election Assistance Commission

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

51mo 9d

TOTAL VOL 24H

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

TODAY

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-07-29 05:00 UTC

DERIVED

RECENT · 2026-07-29 05:00 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-07-29 05:07 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-07-29 05:07 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

KLSH · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 05:07 UTC

IMPLIED YES

36.5%

SPREAD 1.0¢

VOL 24H $8

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

1.0¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

KLSH BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

1.0¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·1.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

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OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2H // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2K // TPM▓9░3NV

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OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

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VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR