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politics

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
2
VENUES
3
VOL 24H
$606
OPEN INT
$55.6K
FRESHNESS
STALE
1577100S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?60%What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?100%
REGIMEdegraded (1/2)
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 kalshi contracts — showing best representative
·
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 438h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
31.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 6.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 31cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE31c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF14:06 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 9C
8%
9C - 20C
18%
20C - 31C
28%
31C - 42C
30%
42C - 53C
12%
ABOVE 53C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Official government action and filing path
FOCUS
Official government action and filing path
WATCH
2 ITEMS
SOURCES
2
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Latest official action from the relevant institution
Any filing or vote that changes the resolution path
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
2 tracks
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 438H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment