EVENT SHELL
politicsWill the margin of victory for
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
7
VENUES
76
VOL 24H
$113
OPEN INT
$3.2K
FRESHNESS
STALE
1574899S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?59%Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 12 percentage points?56%Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 15 percentage points?51%Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 18 percentage points?42%Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 6 percentage points?73%Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 9 percentage points?61%Republicans in the governor election in Texas be at least 21 percentage points?42%
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?
VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING3 kalshi contracts — showing best representative
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 437h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
26.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 4.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 26cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE26c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF14:06 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 4C
8%
4C - 15C
18%
15C - 26C
28%
26C - 37C
30%
37C - 49C
12%
ABOVE 49C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
1
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
7 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 437H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment