EVENT SHELL
politics

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
5
VOL 24H
$8.6K
OPEN INT
$111.3K
FRESHNESS
STALE
16849S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING5 polymarket contracts — showing best representative
·
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 5h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
7.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.
BEST BUY
BEST SELL
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 7cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE7c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF08:15 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 2C
18%
2C - 7C
28%
7C - 13C
30%
13C - 18C
12%
ABOVE 18C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
CATALYST ETA
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Official government action and filing path
FOCUS
Official government action and filing path
WATCH
2 ITEMS
SOURCES
2
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Latest official action from the relevant institution
Any filing or vote that changes the resolution path
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 5H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment