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EVENT SHELL

other

Will Black Coffee have

If Black Coffee has Above 115M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES

VENUES

VOL 24H

$22

OPEN INT

$17.6K

FRESHNESS

STALE

33296S LAG

STATUS

ACTIVE

PROBABILITY

115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?97%125000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%140000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%130000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%175000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%180000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?92%155000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%165000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?96%105000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?100%110000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?100%185000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?91%190000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?86%160000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?97%145000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%150000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?96%170000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?95%195000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?83%200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?82%205000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?77%120000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%135000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?98%

OUTCOME PROBABILITIES

LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...

OUTCOME LADDER

SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE

MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Black Coffee have 115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?

OPEN KALSHI··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If Black Coffee has Above 115M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 9h AGO

CORE VERDICTS

YES

97.0%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

UNKNOWN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

UNKNOWN

Tightest spread is 4.0¢.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 97cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE97c

LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF09:16 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 86C

86C - 91C

18%

91C - 97C

28%

97C - 99C

30%

99C - 99C

12%

ABOVE 99C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

OUTCOME HISTORY

115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?

Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window

21 tracks

OUTCOME VIEW

RANGE

HISTORY BUILDING

Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 9H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

If Black Coffee has Above 115M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

No external context available for this market category.

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

7mo 8d

TOTAL VOL 24H

—

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

TODAY

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-05-31 09:16 UTC

DERIVED

MISSING · No timestamp available

RULES

RECENT · 2026-05-31 09:00 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-31 09:16 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

KLSH · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 09:16 UTC

IMPLIED YES

97.0%

SPREAD 4.0¢

VOL 24H $0

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

4.0¢

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

KLSH BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

4.0¢

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·4.0¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW

AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT

OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE

Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.

REASON: Enrichment in progress

Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.

ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW

AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT

No recent trade activity to display.

REASON: awaiting enrichment

INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW

AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT

No incentive data available right now.

REASON: awaiting enrichment