EVENT SHELL
geopoliticsWill U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M?
If the "TOTAL 2026" value for Imports on the U.S. Census Bureau "Trade in goods with Iran" table (values in millions of U.S. dollars) for 2026 is greater than 5.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$0
OPEN INT
$2.1K
FRESHNESS
STALE
10702S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the "TOTAL 2026" value for Imports on the U.S.
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
GEOPOLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
25.3%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 5.3¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 25cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE25c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF09:16 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 14C
8%
14C - 20C
18%
20C - 25C
28%
25C - 31C
30%
31C - 36C
12%
ABOVE 36C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification
FOCUS
Official conflict, diplomacy, and sanctions verification
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official government or alliance statements
Treaty, ceasefire, sanctions, or military posture updates
Structured conflict-status changes tied to the contract wording
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 3H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment