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politics

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$148.1K
OPEN INT
$245.9K
FRESHNESS
RECENT
168S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
REGIMEnormal (1/1)
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

·
WATCHMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

WATCH: Resolution wording or source quality is still weak enough to create interpretation risk.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 3m AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
0.9%
EDGE
LOW
CONFIDENCE
LOW
LIQUIDITY
MODERATE
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If rule wording remains ambiguous, prices can move while the underlying resolution logic stays unresolved.
LAYOUT · NEG RISK · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
MIXED
Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
MIXED
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
MODERATE
Tightest spread is 0.1¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 1cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE1c
LIQUIDITYNORMAL
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHRECENT
AS OF11:28 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 1C
18%
1C - 1C
28%
1C - 7C
30%
7C - 12C
12%
ABOVE 12C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE low
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Official election administration and filing path
FOCUS
Official election administration and filing path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official filing, certification, or ballot-status update
Jurisdiction-level result publication timing
Any recount, challenge, or litigation affecting certification
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
RECENT 3M
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR
EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E
SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR
VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment