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Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$413
OPEN INT
$892
FRESHNESS
STALE
14374S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

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CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026,...

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

WEATHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 4h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
6.4%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · NEG RISK · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 6cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE6c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF08:15 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 1C
18%
1C - 6C
28%
6C - 18C
30%
18C - 29C
12%
ABOVE 29C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
GENERIC
Local weather outcome verification
FOCUS
Local weather outcome verification
WATCH
2 ITEMS
SOURCES
2
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Latest official forecast update
Any active watches, warnings, or advisories
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 4H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment