EVENT SHELL
macroWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
OUTCOMES
18
VENUES
18
VOL 24H
$3
OPEN INT
$9.9K
FRESHNESS
STALE
19081S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?84%0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?92%1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?75%0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?86%0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?92%2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?85%2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?83%2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?78%3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?74%3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?57%3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?43%1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?87%1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?91%1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?86%2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?85%3.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?49%4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?32%4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?7%
OUTCOME PROBABILITIES
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
Resolution rule: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the m...
WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.
MACRO · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 5h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
84.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
UNKNOWN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · RANGE THRESHOLD · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
UNKNOWN
Tightest spread is 6.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 84cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE84c
LIQUIDITYUNKNOWN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF09:16 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 73C
8%
73C - 78C
18%
78C - 84C
28%
84C - 90C
30%
90C - 95C
12%
ABOVE 95C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
TARGETED
Federal Reserve rate decision path
FOCUS
Federal Reserve rate decision path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
3
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
FOMC statement and target-range decision
Updated Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot
Front-end Treasury and fed funds reaction after the release
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
THRESHOLD HISTORY
0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Ordered threshold buckets across the active range
18 tracks
THRESHOLD VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 5H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment