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EVENT SHELL
politics

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?

If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

OUTCOMES
1
VENUES
1
VOL 24H
$150
OPEN INT
$17.0K
FRESHNESS
STALE
1577099S LAG
STATUS
ACTIVE
PROBABILITY
LOADING OUTCOME HISTORY...
OUTCOME LADDER
SELECT TO DRIVE WORKSPACE
MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?

·
CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Resolution rule: If Donald Trump has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that of...

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 438h AGO
CORE VERDICTS
YES
22.0%
EDGE
INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE
INSUFFICIENT
LIQUIDITY
THIN
RISK
WATCH
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE — single venue
WHY NOW
No acute driver detected.
INVALIDATION
If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.
LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO
MARKET SUMMARY
TRUST
WEAK
Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.
CALIBRATION
UNKNOWN
QUALITY
WEAK
REGIME
NORMAL
EXECUTION
THIN
Tightest spread is 4.0¢.
BEST BUY
—
BEST SELL
—
VISIBLE DEPTH
NONE
BRACKET DISTRIBUTION
MODELED
NOW 22cHORIZON 48H
48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.
BRACKET INPUTS
PRICE22c
LIQUIDITYTHIN
VOLINFERRED
MOMENTUMUNKNOWN
CATALYSTUNKNOWN
WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN
PROVENANCE
FRESHSTALE
AS OF14:06 UTC
COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE
OWNERUNKNOWN
BELOW 1C
8%
1C - 11C
18%
11C - 22C
28%
22C - 33C
30%
33C - 44C
12%
ABOVE 44C
4%
ALERT HOOKS
SHADOW MISMATCH DTO
SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS
CHANGE
NEXT CATALYST
—
CATALYST ETA
—
TOP DRIVER
CONFIDENCE insufficient
CONTEXT
TARGETED
White House action and publication path
FOCUS
White House action and publication path
WATCH
3 ITEMS
SOURCES
2
ACCESS
FULL DETAIL
WATCH
Official executive action release
Transcript or briefing confirmation from the White House
Federal Register publication if the action requires it
COMPARISON
NOT_SAFE
Compare-safe state is not_safe.
COMPARE SAFE
NOT_SAFE
CONTRACT DIFF
NONE
COHERENCE
UNKNOWN
OTHER CONTRACTS
0
WATCH-ONLY
CHART
OUTCOME HISTORY
Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028?
Selected contract against sibling outcomes in this window
1 track
OUTCOME VIEW
RANGE
1W
HISTORY BUILDING
Lucidex has not accumulated enough family history for this range yet.
TRUTH / WATCH RAIL
LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS
STALE 438H
Coverage intact
EXECUTION TICKET
EXECUTION TICKET
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
SUPPORT / EVIDENCE
VISUAL ANALYTICS
VISUAL ANALYTICS
OWNERSHIPEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
OWNERSHIP SNAPSHOT UNAVAILABLE
Holder analytics is currently unavailable for this market family. Refresh later or switch scope.
REASON: Enrichment in progress
Concentration, wallet continuity, recent flow, and relation context populate from ownership snapshots.
ACTIVITYEVENT VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No recent trade activity to display.
REASON: awaiting enrichment
INCENTIVESSELECTED VIEW
AWAITING DATAAWAITING ENRICHMENT
No incentive data available right now.
REASON: awaiting enrichment